Live model · paper units only
The bet is the first five innings — the starting pitcher's half of the game, before bullpens turn it into a lottery. The model asks one question: who is hot right now? Batters are graded on their last 14 days at the plate, starters on their last 3 times out. Every stat is converted to a league percentile, so a 70 means hotter than 70% of MLB at that moment, and each lineup's grade is adjusted for how those hitters fare against the opposing arm's handedness. The result is priced against the market — and a bet only appears when the model's number beats the book's by 3%.
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